Twists in last lap of Tamil Nadu govt formation & how numbers stack up for Vijay’s TVK
What happened first of all, I will tell you. Once I’ve given you the basics then DK Singh, our political editor, will join in. I know right now he’s trying to gather the courage to talk about this as I am because we don’t exactly know what finally is happening or is going to happen because there is a little bit of uncertainty there. However, the basics are that the Tamil Nadu house has 234 members, of which Vijay and his party TV have won 107 seats or 108 seats depending on how you count it. That’s because he contested from two seats and won both.
He will have to give up one and also in the vote of confidence he can only cast one vote. So 107. Which means also that while his number comes down to 107, the overall number in the assembly in the house also comes down to 233. So the majority mark then is 117. Then what happens? How do the numbers stack up? He’s got 107. Congress brings in the five. That is a commitment in writing, so that becomes 112. Then CPI and CPM, also partners of DMK like the Congress, they have also said that they will join the government. So that’s four more. 112 and four becomes 116.
How do you then get to 117 and 118 because one will become speaker as well to cross that Rubicon? TV has got the support of two more groups. One is a party called VCK. VCK is a party of the Dalit group in Tamil Nadu. Small party, usually works with DMK. VCK stands for Vidautalai Chiru Kachi. Its leader Thol. Thirumavalavan is somebody who I might have known or run into during our election travels. Wonderful guy, cheerful guy.
Now they have not yet given a letter to the Governor that they’ll be supporting the government. However, this may not be good enough for the Governor and he may be holding out for a formal letter and behind the scenes, who knows what games are being played. Then Indian Union Muslim League, IUML, has been partners with the DMK in Tamil Nadu, but has also been partners with the Congress party in neighboring Kerala where they are going to be sharing the UDF government with them going ahead.
IUML, they’ve said that they will support the government. They will not join it but they will support it from outside. Now technically that doesn’t make a difference whether you join a government or support it from outside because after all when the UPA came to power this has happened all the time in Indian politics, that a party has supported a government from outside which means in a vote of confidence they will vote with the government but they will not join the government. That happens often enough in Indian politics but the most striking example was the Left Front. The Left Front with a large number of seats, 50 plus seats, not joining UPA1 but supporting it from outside, voting in its favor in parliament in confidence motions. That is what IUML has said they are going to be doing.
The Raj Bhavan in Chennai, or actually what should be Lok Bhavan now, the new names in Chennai, says that they haven’t got a letter either from VCK or from IUML and that’s why some uncertainty remains and that’s the reason the invitations for the swearing in were still being held back. That said, it’s time for me to invite DK Singh to join us.
But DK, what do we make of it? This is what Ravi Shastri would have called a humdinger, or Navjot Singh Sidhu would have said, “It isn’t over till the fat lady sings.” This tension is going on. Where do we stand and what are the new permutations, combinations that are being formed?
DK Singh: First of all, I don’t really think the Governor can really do much. He can procrastinate this, he can keep the suspense on, but I think he’ll have to give in. Changing the name of the Raj Bhavan into Lok Bhavan has not changed anything. Lok Bhavan has to at least respect the people’s mandate now. Vijay has got a mandate and you may be playing with technicalities, but he has got the mandate. One has to respect that mandate.
But don’t forget Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar. He was the speaker of the Goa assembly [much earlier].
We have seen what used to happen in Goa in 2017. If you remember, I was just looking at the data. In 2017 you had this hung assembly in Goa. Congress got 17 out of 40 seats. BJP got 13. But then post-election BJP got Independents and some others and so the BJP formation was BJP plus. They were invited to form the government although Congress was the single largest party.
Same year, in fact in 2017, you see Najma Heptulla, she was the Manipur Governor then. Congress was the single largest party with 28 MLAs. BJP had 21 MLAs. But Najma Heptulla decided to ask the BJP to form the government and the majority mark was just 30 in a 60-member house.
Shekhar Gupta: So she did not invite the party which was three short, but she invited the party which was 10 short.
DK Singh: So Rajendra Arlekar, I’m sure he must have seen what happened in Goa and how things were managed and then Manipur of course. That’s why he seems to be playing the game. People in Tamil Nadu thought once RN Ravi was shifted to West Bengal that okay there will be some kind of respite, but obviously it has not come. Vijay will also be facing the same heat.
Shekhar Gupta: The only difference is that in Tamil Nadu there is no BJP unless the BJP has a horse in the race. Does the BJP have a horse in the race? Because BJP itself has only one MLA.
DK Singh: I don’t really understand what the Governor is trying to do. The BJP has no game here. There’s no way that your alliance partner AIADMK would be able to form the government. So what is the Governor trying to do is totally inexplicable.
If you look at the Sarkaria Commission recommendation in 1988, then we have the SR Bommai judgment in 1994, then Punchhi Commission report in 2010. Both Sarkaria Commission and Punchhi Committee had laid down very clear guidelines. You have to first invite the pre-poll alliance if it has the majority. Second option, which is not the case in Tamil Nadu, is to invite the single largest party to prove its majority. And then third option is post-poll alliances.
It’s very clear here. Vijay has to be invited. Of course you have the Bommai judgment also. Bommai judgment basically says assembly floor, not the Governor’s subjective opinion, is the only place to test a government’s majority. It’s very clear the Governor is not following all these things which have been said about this in the past. Not the commissions on Centre-state relations, not the court ruling. Let’s see how it ends up. But I don’t really think there’s any way that Vijay can be denied a shot at the government.
Shekhar Gupta: You know BJP has one MLA and I will tell you a little joke. There used to be a story about Haryana politics that Mrs Gandhi, Indira Gandhi, was basically auditioning Bansi Lal, Bhajan Lal and others in her party and asking them how many people do you think we will need to win to form a government. One said if I’m 10 short I will get them from others, I’ll form a government. Another said not 10, even if I’m 15 short I will form a government, I’ll get defectors.
Bhajan Lal said, “Madam don’t worry, just let me get elected. I will make sure we form the government.” That came from the background whereby overnight Bhajan Lal with his legislature party from Congress turned into Janata Party. Something like that is also not possible because those lot of MLAs are not available because the rest are divided between ADMK and DMK.
So what do you make of all these stories which have been coming out, including a credible paper like The Hindu, that there is an effort for DMK and AIADMK to combine because they have 106 and then get all the other partners together so they get to about 117?
DK Singh: Yes, there were reports and our correspondent Shweta Tripathi also confirmed there were negotiations. Of course not at a top level, but there was a thinking that once Vijay is there, you never know for how long he’ll be there, so just don’t let him rise, finish him here and then we’ll see. But obviously it’s a very improbable idea.
Look at it logically. If Vijay is there now, the DMK should be looking at the disintegration of the AIADMK because EPS — we have already seen how much infighting was there in the AIADMK — and after this loss there’ll be a big question mark on EPS. EPS is 72, so even his leaders, his MLAs, won’t actually be standing with him till the next election when he will turn 77.
DMK is in a much better position right now. Although that leader is 73 as well, Stalin is 73, but then it’s a much more cohesive unit as it looks like. AIADMK is not. So you would be expecting the DMK to basically play the role of principal opposition and of course AIADMK will start disintegrating and you become the principal opposition party and wait for your turn next time.
Unless there’s so much fear of the Vijay phenomenon that he’s going to stay, politically it actually does not add up why the DMK should be even thinking of having the university.
Shekhar Gupta: Because remember Vijay is a young man by the standards of Indian politics. He’s just 51. So if he becomes chief minister, he’ll be the youngest chief minister of a major state in India. Major state means states with 1 crore plus population.
In the northeast you have Pema Khandu, you have Conrad Sangma, those are sub-1 crore population states.
I told you that we are dealing with a moving target. So even as we are recording, news has come that IUML now seems to be changing its mind. I’m not saying their mind will remain changed. They’ve said that they will not be supporting the Vijay government and VCK has said that they are meeting Stalin right now. So once again there is no decision yet. I told you it’s a moving target except it’s a target that’s moving not just in one direction. It’s going sort of zigzag a little bit.
DK Singh: Basically right now you cannot completely rule out the possibility of the DMK taking this matter further with the AIADMK. How it will turn out, we don’t know.
Shekhar Gupta: Yeah, but they can do that six months later also, they can pull down Vijay.
DK Singh: Just a couple of days back Stalin gave a statement that we will not disturb Vijay for the first six months. So he was very much ready to play the role of the opposition. But of course first is fear. Then the amount of resources you spend in fighting elections — just next five years living without those things becomes a bit difficult. I know because both DMK and AIADMK have spent enormous amounts of money this election.
Shekhar Gupta: Tamil Nadu elections, as we know, these are things you hear on the street when you go covering elections. People say this costs five Gandhis, six Gandhis. One Gandhi is one 500 rupee note because Gandhi’s picture is on a 500 rupee note. So they say such and such party is paying five Gandhis or six Gandhis or three Gandhis. Nevertheless, Tamil Nadu elections are very expensive.
So these two parties will have that other concern that somehow if a government doesn’t come into being or if a government falls very soon and there’s a fresh election, they will have to fish out all of that money. And the fact is that from whatever I understand Vijay has hardly spent any money on this election, definitely nothing compared to the scale of the other parties because he’s used a lot of micro campaigning methods, social media and public rallies and stuff like that.
DK Singh: I would be thinking about the political wisdom of the move because even the DMK-AIADMK alliance would be a very unstable alliance because they have been enemies right since the birth of the AIADMK. Now just an opportunistic coming together won’t stick for long.
Shekhar Gupta: It would be a bit like in Delhi elections, the first Delhi elections when BJP was short and Aam Aadmi Party was short. If Congress and BJP were to come together to put out that tomorrow he’ll become a bigger challenge. So this is as unlikely or this will be as unnatural an alliance as that.
Anything can happen. But Tamil Nadu is a very large state, very large state and very political state and also a very politicized state as well. Political awareness is very strong in that state.
DK Singh: And look at the stakes of smaller parties like the Congress for instance in Tamil Nadu. They will finally get to be in the government after a long, long time because they were always kept out of the government. They kept supporting the DMK but they could never be a part of the government.
They fancy that chance. Some of their leaders may be fancying some Rajya Sabha berth at some point of time. CPI, CPI(M) — they are out of power in every state in the country. Even Stalin is gone now.
Shekhar Gupta: But then even in the event of DMK and AIADMK coming together, chances are these two parties will go there. Congress will have a rough time there. Congress will have a tough time but these two parties can go there. This is the most fluid situation that Left parties have found themselves in in India.
That said, DK tell us something about Vijay’s own politics. How has he handled this situation? Because this situation needs certain skills — going, persuading people, making promises. You just can’t be a superstar sitting someplace.
DK Singh: So he has been keeping away from the public glare. He met the Governor thrice. Until the third meeting, he was yet to meet any potential alliance partners. It’s only after meeting the Governor today that he went to CPI and CPI(M) offices to meet the leaders and they gave him the letters to join.
Coming to the Governor’s choices, we have spoken about these 2017 examples. Now look, the stand the Governors took at that time — being the single largest party is not enough. Even post-poll arrangement gets the priority. That happened in Goa. That happened in Manipur.
Now come to 2018. In 2018 you have the Karnataka assembly elections. So BJP is the single largest party with 104 seats, but then Congress and JDS decide to come together and together they had a clear majority. But then Vajubhai Vala, the Governor, decides to invite the single largest party and Yediyurappa is even sworn in. He had to resign before the floor test because he could not break this alliance between the other two parties.
So that yardstick changed.
Come again to 2019 Maharashtra assembly election. Now BJP and Shiv Sena had an alliance. Post elections Sena refused to support because Sena wanted the chief ministership. Then again BJP had 105 seats and other parties 56, 54, 44 seats.
Bhagat Singh Koshyari asked the BJP to explore the formation of the government. He was ready to let the BJP stake claim and form the government. BJP weighed its options. Nothing moved. So BJP refused to stake claim. After a few days, overnight we saw what happened. President’s rule is revoked and then Fadnavis goes and takes oath. Of course that government fell.
But there’s no uniformity at least. Sometimes you’re calling the single largest party when it suits you, sometimes you go for post-poll formations. The way our Governors have been acting, nobody’s talking about Sarkaria Commission and Punchhi Commission and Bommai judgment. They’re not following any norms and any rules.
Shekhar Gupta: And that’s what’s going on in Chennai as well. But once again the question, and we’ll conclude with that, would be what would the BJP gain from this? Would the BJP feel much better off with the DMK-AIADMK government?
DK Singh: I’m really doubtful if the BJP is behind it. But looking at what the Governor is doing, he’s just trying to needle the TVK.
Shekhar Gupta: Or the BJP will get their value for money just if they can manage to keep the Congress out.
DK Singh: Hypothetically we say okay BJP wants it. Now do you expect the DMK to support the AIADMK-led government from outside? It’s not possible because they will have to join it. AIADMK is a smaller bunch this time, so AIADMK has to play the junior role, junior partner, and DMK has to be the chief minister.
What does the BJP gain out of that because BJP has been fighting with the DMK also? Unless AIADMK decides to dump the BJP and go with the DMK. In that case, why should the Governor, why should a Raj Bhavan, be playing all these tricks?
Yeah. So things are not adding up. You’re just confused why the Governor is doing this.
Shekhar Gupta: So DK, while this goes on and this scoreboard will keep changing, Vijay’s scoreboard will keep changing. As of now firmly we are counting 116. 107 of his own, five of the Congress, that is 112, and then two each of CPI and CPM. If that makes it 116 and if we keep the house at 233 then he’s one short, right? And VCK and IUML are a work in progress one way or the other.
That said, what is the current picture in this assembly? Because we knew that there were alliances earlier, but those alliances are not the same. For example Congress has walked away from DMK’s alliance and also CPI, CPM have walked away from their alliance. So what is the state of the alliances now, the numbers now?
DK Singh: So DMK plus should be around 64. 59 of DMK. Let’s count which is still with DMK — 61. Then VCK, 63 and DMDK, that comes to 64. Yeah.
If you look at AIADMK-led alliance, AIADMK is 47, PMK 4, that is 51. BJP 1, 52. AMMK 53. So AIADMK plus comes to 53 and DMK plus is 64.
Shekhar Gupta: DK, this DMK-AIADMK, for heaven’s sake, it’s never made any sense to me. As I said to you, this would be like Congress and BJP coming together in Delhi to keep Kejriwal out in 2013. If that happens then one of the major parties would cease to exist.
If DMK and AIADMK come together somehow and form a government to keep a newcomer out, one of them will have to die and that’s the reason it’s not going to happen.
And as we are discussing this, indications have come in that VCK will give a letter of support to Vijay. However, it’s also a question that we need to discuss or deliberate on in terms of the future of Dravidian politics because both Dravidian parties are now reduced to nothing. That has not happened in Tamil Nadu since 1967.
Now, do you think Vijay can become the new Dravidian party or you think that’s not possible?
DK Singh: We’ll have to wait and watch. We’ll see how he runs his government because even now it’s a very thin majority. Even if he gets VCK support, he’s going to get 118. It’s not good enough. So anybody can pull him down.
Shekhar Gupta: Remember Vajpayee was pulled down by one because he lacked one seat and the Congress party specialised in this. They would actually back from outside. I thought in this case DMK may do it. They may say we’ll support you from outside and six months later, at any time of their choosing, they could pull it down.
Congress party did that with Chandrashekhar. They did that with Charan Singh also. Charan Singh, they pulled out even before he could face his vote of confidence.
DK Singh: If Vijay gets an adviser from the BJP then of course some DMK people should be keeping the MLAs in a resort or you never know, next six months Vijay may have a very big majority, but he has to get an adviser from the BJP.
Shekhar Gupta: Well, but you know we can go round and round. If that happens and the five Congress people are out, you can also say the BJP can buy up the five Congress people. Who knows? All these things are up in the air.
But as things stand, that’s where we are. Vijay now has a majority, a very thin majority, so he’s got the support of 118 with him with letters. IUML has not really made up its mind. If it does then there’ll be a little more stability, but they were also saying when they were talking of supporting the government that they will support it from outside.
Nevertheless, running this government in Tamil Nadu will be a very challenging job. For Vijay it’ll be baptism by fire because on the one hand there is a sense that he’s got a big mandate, he swept this election, but the reality is still that he’s 11 short of a majority mark.
DK Singh: Yeah. And look at his manifesto. It’s like a great movie. You know when you watch a movie and some hero becomes something big, everybody gets everything.
If you look at his manifesto, some 40-point manifesto had come up with now. 2500 rupees to women head of the family per month. Six free LPG cylinders per year. 15,000 rupees per month annually to the mothers of school-going kids. Unemployment allowance Rs 4,000 per month to graduates, Rs 2500 to diploma holders. Five lakh jobs.
Then he’s going to create this super app for all public services. I don’t know how this super app is going to function. He’ll be setting up a ministry of artificial intelligence, setting up an AI city.
Shekhar Gupta: Easy. You can set up a ministry of anything in India.
DK Singh: Then he has gone big making a lot of promises to women. Dedicated department for safety of women and that will be completely under Vijay directly. That’s like a movie.
Yes. So that’s what the manifesto said. It will be under the chief minister. Our point is many, many promises. When it comes to delivery, how much he is able to deliver, that we’ll have to keep watch.
Shekhar Gupta: Indian politics can always throw up surprises, but even for people like us, DK and me, who are inured to surprises from our politics, this is extraordinary. And we can promise you that suspense will not be over until the government is formed and actually goes into governance as well because this will be a government which any two people will be able to pull down.
So let us see. Let’s keep watching this movie. This is going to be quite exciting.
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