How Vijay is trying to build a standalone majority for TVK

Chennai: Senior AIADMK leader and former minister M.R. Vijayabaskar resigned as MLA from Karur on Monday, becoming the latest in a string of defectors from the opposition party. He is expected to join Vijay’s TVK this week, bringing the strength of AIADMK down to 41.

The development comes two days after the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam’s (MDMK’s) exit from the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance after nine years of ties. Vaiko extended support to TVK, especially in by-elections. However, the two MDMK MLAs have refused to resign after they won the recent assembly elections on the rising sun symbol. 

Currently, TVK’s individual tally stands at 107, just seven short of the majority mark. If the TVK wins all the seven constituencies that have fallen vacant in bypolls, its tally would go up to 114 in the 234-member assembly, just four short of the majority mark. It’s a big ‘if’, though.

The TVK had emerged as the single largest party with 108 seats in the April assembly elections but initially fell short of the 118-seat majority. TVK formed the government with support from former DMK alliance partners. 

The Congress, with five seats, joined the coalition securing two ministerial berths. The Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) and Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) provided backing with two seats each, and Communist Party of India (CPI) and Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) extended outside support with two seats each. While this helped TVK pass the floor test comfortably, the party did not stop seeking the support of other parties. 

Vaiko had also said that CM Vijay had promised to personally campaign for the MDMK if the two MLAs resigned and it led to a by-elections. “In the upcoming by elections, we will extend our support to TVK. I appreciate their government. They have eradicated commission and corruption, the two evils of democracy. They are free from those allegations,” Vaiko told the media on Sunday.

Previously, AIADMK MLAs K. Maragatham Kumaravel, P. Sathyabama, S. Jayakumar, and Esakki Subbiah, had resigned from the assembly and formally joined the ruling TVK, triggering by-elections.

While AIADMK won 47 seats in the elections, it now has only 41 MLAs with it, as the strength reduced due to internal rifts and defections. Factions led by Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) and S.P. Velumani, though united now, had clashed earlier and many leaders returned to the EPS fold while others exited entirely. EPS has accused TVK of horse-trading and has opposed the acceptance of some resignations, petitioning the Speaker on anti-defection matters.

Political observers point out that TVK wants to reduce the dependency on the alliance partners and there is a lack of trust which is seen in decisions of the party over appointing officers on special duty and other representatives.

“If there are any political decisions that involve support towards BJP policy decisions, VCK and the Left parties would back out of support to TVK. Vijay knows and understands this really well and this is why he has made all the appointments carefully. He has appointed only his inner circle as special adviser or representative, irrespective of their lack of experience in administration and politics. He does not want to trust and depend on any other individual of any other party because they cannot risk losing support,” says political analyst Arun Kumar.

Political observers also note that the recent decisions to privatise certain government projects such as solid waste management and others were opposed by its alliance partners and the government had to turn down the proposal. In such cases, it becomes very significant for TVK to gather more support in the assembly so that in circumstances that VCK or left parties back out, the government remains firm.

“Thanks to Vaiko, it is clear that TVK is approaching the other parties that can offer support and strengthen their position in the assembly if it comes to a trust vote. Besides MDMK and the AIDMK leaders, we can also see growing closeness of TVK members with the PMK leaders,” added Arun Kumar.

While Vijay’s approach of absorbing support appears geared toward building self-reliance, the Opposition is gearing up to launch an attack on the TVK over law and order as well as a hit on industrial development. 

“TVK leaders and Vijay are insecure, they are trying to consolidate majority numbers under the TVK’s own identity and not ‘at the mercy of DMK’, as DMK calls it. They will continue the coalition government but will ensure that they have an adequate number of seats to strengthen their position in the assembly, retaining the government for the next five years,” said political analyst Sunil Kumar.

(Edited by Gitanjali Das)

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