Global Market Today: Asian stocks rise, oil falls as US cites Iran progress
MSCI’s gauge for Asian equities climbed 1% to a record with technology shares leading the gains on renewed optimism for the artificial intelligence trade. South Korea, a poster child for AI investments, jumped 5% to an all-time high, with Samsung Electronics Co. reaching $1 trillion valuation.
Brent, the global crude oil benchmark, fell 1.3% to about $108 a barrel following Trump’s comments. The dollar, which emerged as the haven of choice during the Middle East conflict, weakened.
Contracts for the S&P 500 Index advanced 0.3% and those for the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.7% after Trump’s comments, as cheaper oil bolstered expectations for easing inflation and stronger growth. The Wall Street gauges closed at a record high on Wednesday and the tech rally appeared to have more to run, with strong earnings from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Super Micro Computer Inc.
With geopolitical risk premiums easing, the prospect of lower energy costs and reduced uncertainty improves the outlook for global growth, reinforcing support for equities even at record levels. The backdrop also dovetails with a revival in the artificial intelligence trade, as easing inflation pressures and improved sentiment bolster expectations for stronger corporate earnings.
“Our base-case for markets and the economy has been that there will be a near-term resolution between the US and Iran, allowing for energy prices to fall after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research.
Trump said he would pause a US-led effort to help stranded ships exit the Strait of Hormuz to see if an agreement with Iran to end the war could be finalized.“Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed,” Trump said in a social media post on Tuesday.
Cheaper oil lifted the debt market with US long bonds rebounding during the New York session, sending the 30-year yield back below 5%. Even so, bond traders are boosting wagers that the Federal Reserve’s next policy move could be an interest-rate hike rather than a cut.
Elsewhere, the yen strengthened 0.1% to about 157.70 per dollar. Gold rose 0.8% to about $4,590 an ounce.
The rebound in global stocks from their Iran war lows has been so narrow that the market is primed for broader gains triggered by even slightly positive news, according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. led by Mislav Matejka.
“Many investors are trying to read the tea leaves on the next shoe to drop with the Iran war and oil prices, but stocks have historically moved on quickly from geopolitical events, and we believe this current issue is no different,” said Julian Koski at New Age Alpha.
