Assembly Elections 2026: Who has edge in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu & Puducherry

So, wars will go on. That will not stop Indian politics. Come hell or high water, Indian politics will go on.

Indian politics is now going into a very busy phase. In fact, it’s already begun that phase with five state elections. Or okay, four states and one Union Territory.

That is West Bengal, Tamil Nadu—I am listing the big states first, not necessarily the order in which they will go to the polls. So West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, Puducherry, which is a Union Territory.

In the first round, three will go to the polls: Kerala, Assam and Puducherry. And then we have Tamil Nadu and then West Bengal in two phases. In May first week, the results will come out. This is a busy six-week session.

Now this is a very interesting set of elections because each state gives us a different picture. In one state, Assam, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the incumbent. In another state, West Bengal, the BJP is a challenger—a close challenger they would think. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) is the incumbent.

Kerala—the Left Front. The only place where the Left holds power in India, besides indeed the JNU Union. There too it’s a different set of Left politics. Otherwise, this is the only holdout of the Left. And now, they will be battling double anti-incumbency and the Congress is the challenger.

In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance, which includes the Congress and the Left—it’s an old alliance—they are the incumbent. Importantly in Tamil Nadu, political combinations have changed substantially.

In Assam, while the BJP is incumbent, that is one more state where it’s a direct clash between the Congress and the BJP—the BJP as the double incumbent and the Congress as the challenger.

And then Puducherry, where the All India NR Congress party, which is an ally of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the BJP, is in power. All of these go to the polls.

Now to talk a little bit about this and what’s at stake—we don’t do any opinion polls, we don’t make any predictions. That’s the reason I am not even saying a front runner, also-ran etc. I am only telling you who is the incumbent and who is the challenger.

To make sense of all of this, we have who else but DK Singh. So DK, what’s at stake in these elections? Tell me on each state in two sentences.

DK: In Assam, of course, the BJP is totally dominant and the BJP has to retain it because in the other four states, the BJP can improve.

West Bengal—the BJP is hoping a lot. But if you look at the vote share, as you said, we are not in the business of predicting, so we look at the vote share and Mamata Banerjee’s hold.

So in 2021 Assembly election, there was a gap of 10 percentage points between the TMC’s and the BJP’s votes—the TMC got 48%, the BJP got 38%.

Now come to the 2024 Lok Sabha election—we have to look at it because the BJP generally tries to ride on PM Modi’s popularity. Now in 2024, the BJP’s vote share remains almost the same, goes up to 39%, and the TMC’s share comes down from 48% to 46%.

Still there was a gap of 7 percentage points, even when people were voting for the Prime Minister. So the BJP is, of course, very confident because the TMC has been there since 2011, they think there’ll be strong anti-incumbency.

SG: Triple anti-incumbency.

DK: Triple anti-incumbency. But if you look at the vote shares of these parties in the last two elections—Lok Sabha and Assembly—looks tough as it is. 

Tamil Nadu—the DMK looks pretty well entrenched because of the alliance it has. But again, the AIADMK is looking at anti-incumbency against the DMK coalition. But there, first time you’re seeing the AIADMK without any star power. You don’t have any MGR, you don’t have any Jayalalithaa

DK: Now Stalin in the DMK is not exactly Karunanidhi, but he is seen as somebody who builds consensus. He has his fan following, not Karunanidhi in stature, but he’s taken it pretty seriously.

On the AIADMK side, EPS (Edappadi K Palaniswami) does not have it yet. We saw last time what happened—once Jayalalithaa was out, the first election they faced in 2021, their vote share came down, seats came down to 66—a drastic fall. And from there, we have not really seen the AIADMK improve.

So if you talk to Tamil politicians—I was just before coming here sitting with (Congress’) Karthik Chidambaram—and we were discussing. He says if you look at the discourse in Tamil Nadu, EPS is hardly being talked about. So that’s where there is no match—Stalin still has a personality, EPS is not that personality yet.

And there is an EPS-OPS issue that we will come to.

You go to the next state— Kerala. Again, 10 years of anti-incumbency. We saw what happened in the recent local body polls where the United Democratic Front (UDF) swept. The UDF is the Congress-led coalition.

So there also you look at the trend—the 2021 Assembly election, the LDF gets re-elected. By 2024, the UDF is back in its dominant position in the Lok Sabha election. It sweeps the election. Then local body election last year—also swept by the UDF.

So there the UDF seems to have an edge. But as the Congress people say, it’s always us who lose the elections—you never know.

SG: The UDF as we know is the coalition led by the Congress party. One is led by the Left party CPM, that is the Left Democratic Front (LDF). The United Democratic Front led by the Congress also has Indian Union Muslim League and Kerala Congress factions. So basically, it’s a coalition of Congress’ vote bank and Muslims and Christian minorities.

DK: Yes. So that is the trophy. Kerala becomes tough because again you hear a lot from the BJP, but the fact is the Muslims and the Christians constitute 46% of the population there. It’s very tough to split that, which the BJP was hoping.

They were hoping that a section of Christians could walk out of the UDF sway, which has not really happened. We did not see it in the local body elections where the Congress dominated those regions.

So what’s the BJP expecting in Kerala? Best scenario would be somehow a hung Assembly—a very high hope, but that’s the best they can hope for. Usually, Kerala has clear verdicts.

Yes, because both minorities—the Christians and the Muslims—seem to be going with the UDF this time.

The LDF again—see what the BJP has done: the BJP has made major inroads into some Hindu vote banks, say the Ezhavas, the main support base of the LDF. There also post-poll surveys tell you that the BJP has dented about 30–40% of the Ezhavas. That’s a lot. Among the Nairs also, the BJP is making a dent.

So among the Hindu vote bank, the BJP is coming up. But in terms of final translation into Assembly votes, (implying it is open).

SG: Yes, but at the same time looks like this will hurt the LDF.

DK: It may hurt the LDF, but the Nairs also—a significant section votes for the Congress. Now there also the BJP is poaching. Shashi Tharoor being one.

In the last Lok Sabha election, the first time the BJP won a seat, but that was more about the candidate. So, the BJP—we are yet to see that influence of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) translate into seats. They’ve been there for decades, but it hasn’t fully converted into electoral success. So, this is what the BJP would be looking to see this time.

Which brings us to Assam. And another factor — if the LDF loses this time, the chief minister (Pinarayi Vijayan) is going to be 81 in a couple of months. It’s his last rodeo. After that, the LDF does not have any big face.

SG: In Kerala or nationally?

DK: In Kerala. Nationally also, who is there now? So after 1977, it will be the first time when the Left will not be in power in any state, if the LDF loses. Biggest stakes for them. And as we have seen, once the Left loses, they start receding—Bengal, Tripura. There the BJP may fancy its chances. In Tripura, a lot of Left base shifted to the BJP; in West Bengal, they shifted to the TMC.

Initially, sort of lock, stock and barrel. So, the Left is not able to keep ideological cohesion; it doesn’t transfer into loyalty in periods of defeat.

SG: Because when the BJP started growing massively in Bengal, till then for the Left cadres and even the Congress, Mamata Banerjee was the biggest adversary.

DK: Exactly. So even if they wouldn’t normally vote the BJP, their main adversary was Mamata Banerjee, so they went with the BJP to defeat her. The BJP would hope that repeats.

---

Also Read: Congress 1st Kerala list out, but suspense lingers over Kannur & Konni, seats eyed by heavyweights

---

The Tamil Nadu scenario

SG: What is the importance of the Congress and the BJP in Tamil Nadu?

DK: The Congress again—they have managed to get three more seats this time from the DMK.

SG: Three more means?

DK: From 25 to 28 seats. So the DMK has agreed to part with 28 seats to the Congress this time—just about 10% of all the seats. Yes, so the Congress without the DMK is nothing there, just as the BJP without the AIADMK couldn’t do much. We saw in the last Lok Sabha election, despite all the hype, the AIADMK and the BJP did not go together. 

Now the BJP—the NDA they formed with a few more parties—got about 18% votes. The BJP itself was just 11%. Now they have come together with the AIADMK—let’s see how that translates.

But again, look at Tamil Nadu. Even in the Lok Sabha election, which the BJP hopes to ride on Modi’s popularity, the DMK-led alliance got 46% votes. Now if you put NDA votes plus the AIADMK votes—23 and 18—it comes to 41%. So even combined, they were about 6 percentage points behind the DMK alliance.

So that tells you—hopes are fine, but numbers don’t support them.

SG: So this is an unusual state where both national parties are secondary, and coalitions can do without them.

DK: Yes, but look at the DMK’s coalition—they have everybody. That’s their biggest strength. They have Left, the IUML, the VCK—for Muslims, Dalits—all these parties represent certain caste groups. So they have a much larger coalition.

The AIADMK and the DMDK—Vijayakanth’s party—has also joined.

SG: See that picture of ours with late Vijayakanth—some of us travelling in Tamil Nadu trying to show off non-existent biceps. Then the third factor everyone is talking about — the Vijay factor, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), his party.

DK: Now his party—a lot of hype, he’s a big star. But recently in district committee meetings, their own people said you need an alliance, otherwise we won’t even get candidates. So stardom is visible, but ground organisation is not there.

SG: So what exactly is his politics?

DK: Not clear at all. He calls the DMK his political enemy, the BJP his ideological enemy—beyond that nothing. Not giving interviews, not explaining what he brings. But he has street appeal—huge crowds. Some estimates say 15–20% vote base, but nobody knows.

Now even party cadre is unsure about candidates. So star power is fine, but we’ve seen many stars in Tamil Nadu politics.

SG: Do you see a bit of Prashant Kishor-type phenomenon—buzz, crowds, social media traction?

DK: Yes, but Prashant Kishor was more practical. He knew he could go to the top or the bottom.

SG: Arsh or farsh (roughly meaning, massive success or a dramatic fall).

DK: Yes—here Vijay is averse to alliances. Thinks he can do it alone. That looks ambitious.

SG: If he takes votes, where from—the DMK or the AIADMK?

DK: Surveys say he’s cutting into both, roughly equally. Latest suggests slightly more from the DMK—about 2% more. But still uncertain—the election is a month away.

SG: Does the Christian factor play with Vijay?

DK: It’s being projected, but I don’t think so. He doesn’t project himself as a Christian leader. His fan base cuts across caste and religion. But we’ve seen this before—Kamal Haasan, Vijayakanth. After (former Tamil Nadu chief ministers) MGR (Maruthur Gopalan Ramachandran) and Jayalalithaa, that level of fan-to-vote conversion hasn’t happened.

SG: That said, let’s come to Assam now. The Congress has been out for two terms. A former Congressman is strong and seeking a third term. How does it look?

DK: Also setbacks for Congress—like Pradeep Bordoloi leaving.Big face—a four-term MLA, two-term MP, from Nagaon (Muslim-majority).

For someone like him to quit tells you how serious it is. He said he was humiliated—there must be something. This has been a Congress stronghold historically. But now it’s a setback.

In 2021, the Congress formed a big alliance—a Mahajot— 7–8 parties, gave the NDA a tough fight. Vote gap was less than 1%—44% vs 43%. The BJP didn’t get majority alone. But this time, that alliance is gone. The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) not with Congress, the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) now with the BJP. So, the opposition is fragmented.

SG: Is the Congress avoiding the AIUDF deliberately?

DK: Yes, except last time when desperate. In the Lok Sabha, the AIUDF flopped without the Congress. Now (AIUDF chief Badruddin) Ajmal will contest again—but unclear how much Muslim vote he cuts.

Earlier with the Congress, they got 90% consolidated vote. Now uncertain. Also interesting—the Congress has a clear face here: Gaurav Gogoi. Not officially announced, but clear.

SG: And Himanta?

DK: Very clear strategy—total polarisation. After delimitation, Muslim voters concentrated in about 23 seats. He’s focusing on remaining 103 seats. Says: 23 for you, 103 for us.

SG: What’s your sense of Himanta, as a leader and as a campaigner?

DK: In the last election—I mean 2024 also, 2021 also—he’s hugely popular. The kind of connect he has with the masses is amazing. But yes, at the incumbency of 10 years, again for him also, let’s see how he translates. But he knows their language, he knows what he’s talking about.

As a leader, as a strategist—you see, he first got former Congress chief Bhupen Borah onto his side—now a big catch. So you can call him the ‘Amit Shah of Assam’. After (Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister) Yogi Adityanath, probably second most in demand. Also, he is quite young—57. 

---

Also Read: Amit Shah won’t lose sleep over Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Assam. Bengal is different

---

Emergence of future leaders?

SG: So what you also see in these elections is some future leaders coming up. If Gaurav Gogoi pulls off something big, something really dramatic, then his stature in the Congress goes up. You would say, however, the odds for him are quite steep, is it?

DK: Odds are steep. Also, the national leadership sometimes hurts— like (Congress chief Mallikarjun) Kharge’s remarks on resettling evicted people went viral negatively. Gogoi has been cautious.

প্ৰতিগৰাকী লোকৰে ভৰসাৰ এক নাম গৌৰৱ গগৈ…
এইবাৰ তেওঁৰ নেতৃত্বতে অসমত ব’ব বিকাশৰ নৈ… pic.twitter.com/1aqayeqHN6

— Assam Congress (@INCAssam) March 16, 2026

SG: Finally, Puducherry. What’s happening there. It also has peculiar politics.

DK: Again it’s the extension of Tamil Nadu politics. (Chief Minister) N. Rangaswamy— a former Congress chief minister, now with his own party allied to the BJP—very popular.

The Congress still has (former chief minister V.) Narayanasamy as face, but not much buzz. Anti-incumbency exists, but the Opposition hasn’t capitalised. The DMK is pushing hard, but the Congress doesn’t let them dominate there.

SG: So, you say that Puducherry politics is an extension of the Dravidian politics, the DMK politics. How then is the DMK not doing better there? Why can’t the DMK swing it if they’re allies?

DK: The Congress wants control. Same issue on the BJP side—Rangaswamy hasn’t allowed the BJP full expansion either.

SG: Thank you for helping us understand this better. You really cut the clutter. I thought I’ll catch DK now because tomorrow something else will dominate the war headlines. But domestic politics is equally important. DK and his team will now spread out to all these states—watch out for their reports, both text and video.

(Edited by Tony Rai)

---

Also Read: Watch CutTheClutter: BJP’s back in Delhi after 27 years, what it means for the capital

---