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Ahead of market: 10 things that will decide stock market action on Monday


Indian frontline indices ended their two-session rally amid sharp cuts as a failure in the Iran-US negotiations dented the market mood. Elevated energy prices and a plunging rupee aggravated troubles for domestic investors. Amid high volatility, markets were mainly dragged by financials, auto and consumer stocks. Nifty settled at 22,819.60, falling by 486.85 points or 2.09%, while the BSE Sensex closed at 73,583.22, declining 1,690.23 points or 2.25%.

Meanwhile, the volatility gauge India VIX ended at 26.80, up by 8.77% from the last closing.

Here’s how analysts read the market pulse:

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the index is trading below the 21-hour EMA, indicating sustained short-term bearish momentum. Additionally, the RSI has entered a bearish crossover, reinforcing the negative bias. “Given the prevailing market uncertainties, a sell-on-rise approach may remain suitable in the near term. Technically, any rebound towards 23,500 could face selling pressure, as this level is likely to act as an immediate resistance. On the downside, a break below 22,800 may lead to further weakness in the market,” De said.

US markets

US markets traded lower on Friday amid continued uncertainty over truce talks in the Iran-Israel conflict. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 792.67 points, or 1.72%, to 45,167.44. The S&P 500 declined 113.35 points, or 1.75%, to 6,363.75, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 459.72 points, or 2.15%, to 20,948.36.

European Markets

Major European indices closed with significant declines. UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX, Stoxx 600, Spain’s IBEX 35 and France’s CAC 40 settled down between 0.05% and 1.38% around this time.

Tech View

Investor sentiment remains fragile due to a lack of clarity surrounding geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which once again pushed crude oil prices above the $100 mark, said Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice President, Research at Religare Broking.
“On the technical front, the Nifty continues to hover near crucial support levels, indicating sustained pressure despite entering oversold territory. Immediate support is placed around 22,500, and a decisive break below this level could trigger further downside towards 22,000. On the upside, 23,000 is likely to act as an immediate hurdle, followed by stronger resistance near the 23,500 zone in case of any recovery,” Mishra said.He expects volatility to remain elevated on Monday and advised participants to maintain a cautious approach, avoid aggressive positioning, and focus on disciplined risk management while adopting a selective, stock-specific trading strategy.

Most active stocks in terms of turnover

Bharti Airtel (Rs 663 crore), Hindalco Industries (Rs 519 crore), HDFC Bank (Rs 468 crore), InterGlobe Aviation or commonly known as IndiGo (Rs 372 crore), Gujarat Alkalies and Chemicals (Rs 242 crore), Tata Motors (TMCV, Rs 213 crore) and RPSG Ventures (Rs 204 crore) were among the most active stocks on BSE in value terms. Higher activity in a counter in value terms can help identify the counters with the highest trading turnovers for the day.

Most active stocks in volume terms

Vodafone Idea (Traded shares: 3.43 crore), SpiceJet (Traded shares: 3.76 crore), YES Bank (Traded shares: 1.19 crore), Suzlon Energy (Traded shares: 1.03 crore), Reliance Power (Traded shares: 84.11 lakh), Ola Electric (Traded shares: 74.32 lakh) and JP Power (Traded shares: 71.48 lakh) and were among the most actively traded stocks in volume terms on BSE.

Stocks showing buying interest

HEG, Graphite India, ACME Solar, Hilton Metal Forging, RPSG Ventures, Supreme Petrochem and Likhitha Infrastructure were among the stocks that witnessed strong buying interest from market participants.

52 Week high

Today, 67 stocks hit their 52-week highs while 906 stocks slipped to their 52-week lows. Among the stocks that hit their 52-week highs were Apt Packaging, Aurobindo Pharma, Gautam Exim, HRS Aluglaze, Prime Focus, Surbhi Industries and Titan Biotech.

Stocks seeing selling pressure

Among the largecap names were Shriram Finance, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles) and Reliance Industries (RIL). Other stocks which witnessed significant selling pressure were Punjab & Sind Bank (PSB), Naga Dhunseri Group, Shemaroo Entertainment, Deepak Builders & Engineers India, Uma Exports, Bombay Super Hybrid Seeds and Aye Finance.

Sentiment meter favours bears

Heavyweights like Reliance Industries (RIL), HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank dragged the markets the most, as the breadth stayed negative in the overall markets. Out of the 4,501 stocks that traded on the BSE on Monday, March 30, 761 stocks witnessed advances, 3,615 saw declines, while 125 stocks remained unchanged.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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